By Muhammad Luqman
World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the number of coronavirus cases in Pakistan can rise to an estimated 200,000 by mid-July if “effective interventions” are not taken.
“Pakistan’s #COVID19 Response Plan is a joint strategy of the Government of #Pakistan, the @UN and partners. It is aligned with the @GlobalGoalsUN, Pakistan’s National Action Plan and WHO’s global Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan,” Dr Tedros Adhanom, Director-General WHO said at the launch of the Pakistan National Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan virtual conference on Thursday.
He said that little was known about #COVID19. Now at the beginning of this year, it has spread globally, upending health systems and economies, and putting lives and livelihoods at risk.
Honoured to join 🇵🇰's virtual launch of the National #COVID19 Strategic Preparedness & Response Plan. Congratulations to Foreign Minister @SMQureshiPTI, Minister of Economic Affairs Makhdum Khusro Bakhtyar & Health Minister @zfrmrza for joining efforts to protect their nation.
— Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (@DrTedros) April 23, 2020
He said that #COVID19 Response Plan was a joint strategy of the Government of #Pakistan, the @UN and partners. It is aligned with the @GlobalGoalsUN, Pakistan’s National Action Plan and WHO’s global Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan”
“The virus has already spread throughout. Over 115 districts are affected, largely in Punjab & Sindh,” the WHO Chief said.
He said that the #COVID19 outbreak is creating significant additional pressure on an already overburdened health system, exacerbating the vulnerabilities of affected populations”-
Dr. Tedros said that particular attention must be paid to mitigating the socio-economic and nutritional impacts of the #COVID19 pandemic on the most vulnerable.
He said that the required funding for the plan was $595mn which would be allocated to support various measures.
“The whole-of-government approach reflected in the plan enables resources to be adapted to support the most effective public health interventions as more is learned about both the virus and the key risk groups,” WHO Chief said.
“Without effective interventions there could be an estimated 200K+ cases by mid-July. The impacts on the economy could be devastating, doubling the number of people living in poverty,” he warned.
The statement from the global health body comes at a time when coronavirus cases in Pakistan have surged past 10,000 and more than 210 people have died.
At global level, more than 2.6 million cases and 183,000 deaths have been recorded since the virus emerged in China in December last.
Moody’s warning
Meanwhile, international Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has said that the economic shock from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic was likely to trigger Pakistan’s first annual recession in 2020.
In a report, Moody’s noted that the country’s financing needs were also expected to rise significantly, while its real — or inflation-adjusted — gross domestic product (GDP) would likely fall 0.1-0.5% as well as opposed to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projected 1.5%.
According to English newspaper, The News, The Prime Minister Imran Khan-led government had last month approved a Rs1.2-trillion relief and stimulus package to cushion the virus-caused economic impact. It includes tax incentives for businesses, exports, and the health sector, as well as support to households, which were given financial assistance via the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme.
That relief package was followed by the IMF’s $1.4-billion Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) to Pakistan on April 16, $588 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Development Association (IDA) and a debt relief offer from the G20 countries. All of these, the credit rating agency added, would help slash financing risks.
It is important to note here that the IMF has also given Pakistan $6 billion as a bailout package under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF), while the World Bank has done the same under its own Revitalising, Innovating, Strengthening Education project.
The G20 nations’ offer, on the other hand, was likely to support the country “by deferring principal and interest payments on bilateral debt due between May and December”.
However, Moody’s stressed that PM Imran’s Rs1.2-trillion package would bump up Pakistan’s financing needs. It would widen the PTI government’s FY2020 fiscal deficit to 9.5-10% of the GDP, as opposed to 8.9% in 2019 “despite strong revenue growth narrowing the deficit in the first half of fiscal 2020”.
While the government revenue shot up 40%, tax revenue rose 18% and non-tax revenue almost doubled partly on the back of SBP’s higher profits in the year’s first half, it was forecast to fall.
“Nevertheless, tax revenue is likely to contract in the second half compared with the year-ago period, although higher-than-budgeted central bank profits, lower-than-budgeted interest payments, and fiscal payments from lower oil prices will mitigate the effect of the contraction on the deficit,” Moody’s added.
In addition, the government’s debt-to-GDP ration was projected to rise to 87% this year, compared to 83% in 2019. It would, however, decline in later years, the agency noted.
The economy was said to recover by over 2% in 2021.
The country-wide lockdown to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus “will significantly curtail domestic consumption and pose downside risks to economic growth, which threatens a wider fiscal deficit and a higher government debt burden than we [Moody’s] currently project”.
Further dampening the economic hit were the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) move to bring down the policy rate — in three consecutive cuts — to 9%.
