Pakistan to re-impose lock down in various cities to check coronavirus spread

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By Muhammad Luqman
Pakistan’s government has decided to seal selected areas of various cities from Monday night to help check the spread of the coronavirus as the number of the infected people in this part of world are feared to touch the mark of 1.2 million by end of July.
“A total of 20 cities across Pakistan have been identified as having likely increase in ratio/speed of infection which needs restrictive measures for containment,” according to National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) , the Islamabad-based body that coordinates the national response to the virus .
These cities include- Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Islamabad , Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranawala, Swat, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Sialkot. Gujarat, Ghotki, Larkana, Khairpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Malakand and Mardan.
Pakistan has reported 146,863 COVID-19 cases with 2,783 deaths till the evening of June 15.
However, the rate of daily cases has been rising fast in the country of 207 million, a point noted by the World Health Organisation in a letter to Pakistani authorities last week.
About 50 neighborhoods of eastern city of Lahore are being sealed Tuesday night as a report of Punjab government recently feared that the number of COVID infected people had reached over 600,000 in the capital of Punjab province.

“We are going to seal these areas for atleast two weeks, not letting any body  into or out of cordoned localities,” Punjab’s Health Minister, Dr. Yasmeen Rashid told a news conference on Monday.
Parts of Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, as well as north-western city of Peshawar, are expected to be subjected to similar measures.
On Sunday, Pakistan’s Planning Minister Asad Umar had warned that the cases could double by the end of June to 300,000, and reach 1 million to 1.2 million by the end of July if people continue with their ‘ devil may care’ attitude.

Imperial College London’s warning

The Imperial College London’s algorithm has drawn very a very gloomy picture of Pakistan, warning that coronavirus pandemic in Pakistan will reach the peak on August 10, 2020 on which day around 80,000 deaths will occur.
The research is sponsored by the UK government which shows the projected deaths from coronavirus in case of lockdown or otherwise in different countries, except the US and the UK. Imperial College website says about Pakistan that if it imposes 32 percent lockdown from February 27 to July 11, i.e. for 135 days, then August 04 will be the peak day with 13,570,000 people will be affected. The worst day for Pakistan concerning corona deaths is expected at August 10 and deaths are projected to reach 78,515 after which deaths will start witnessing decrease.
The website says January 2021 will witness end to corona in Pakistan and on January 26, 2021, total death toll in Pakistan from corona would be 2,132,617. It said if the lockdown was not imposed then 2,229,000 deaths will occur in Pakistan by January 26, 2021. If complete lockdown was imposed in Pakistan immediately, then death toll may be restricted to about 10,200 by end period.
In India, total deaths by Jan 25, 2021, would be 14,244,379 without intervention, while with intervention it would be 13,649,520
In Afghanistan, total deaths by Feb 19, 2021 would be 313,531 without intervention. While with intervention the figure would be 305,350.
In Brazil, total deaths by Jan 24, 2021 without intervention would be 2,926,348 and with intervention to be 1,519,453. The figures given by the Imperial College are just a simulation, and not a predication.

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