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Global food commodity prices declined in January for the fifth consecutive month, driven mainly by lower international prices for dairy, sugar and meat products, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes in the prices of a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 123.9 points in January. This marked a 0.4 percent decline from December and a 0.6 percent drop compared to January last year.
The FAO Cereal Price Index edged up slightly by 0.2 percent month-on-month, despite marginal declines in global wheat and maize prices. Abundant wheat stocks helped offset weather-related concerns affecting dormant crops in the Russian Federation and the United States. Similarly, ample global maize supplies countered adverse weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil, as well as strong ethanol demand in the United States. In contrast, the FAO All-Rice Price Index rose by 1.8 percent, reflecting stronger demand for fragrant rice varieties.
Vegetable oil prices increased, with the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rising 2.1 percent in January. Palm oil prices climbed due to seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia and firm global import demand. Soybean oil prices rebounded amid tightening export supplies from South America and expectations of robust biofuel demand in the United States. Sunflower oil prices also rose due to supply constraints in the Black Sea region, while rapeseed oil prices edged lower, reflecting ample availability in the European Union following large recent imports.
The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 0.4 percent from December, largely due to lower pig meat prices amid abundant supplies and subdued global demand. Poultry meat prices increased, mainly supported by strong international demand and higher prices in Brazil. Prices for ovine and bovine meat remained broadly stable, with higher Brazilian exports to China offsetting the rapid exhaustion of the United States’ tariff-free quota.
Dairy prices recorded the steepest fall, with the FAO Dairy Price Index dropping 5.0 percent month-on-month, driven by lower prices for cheese and butter amid ample supplies. In contrast, skim milk powder prices strengthened due to renewed import demand from the Near East, North Africa and parts of Asia.
The FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 1.0 percent in January, reflecting expectations of increased global supplies. This outlook is supported by a strong production rebound in India, favourable crop prospects in Thailand, and a generally positive production outlook in Brazil.
FAO also released its latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025, projecting output at a record 3,023 million tonnes, driven by anticipated record harvests of wheat, coarse grains and rice. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected wheat yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union, along with expanded maize plantings and improved yields in China and the United States. Global rice production is also forecast to rise, led by increases in India, Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia.
The organization’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also reviewed prospects for the 2026 crops in the northern hemisphere. Winter wheat plantings in India are expected to reach a record level due to high domestic prices and favourable weather, while plantings in the United States are projected to decline amid low prices and drier-than-normal conditions. In the southern hemisphere, coarse grain harvesting is set to begin in the second quarter of 2026 under generally favourable conditions in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa.
World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast to rise by 2.2 percent year-on-year. Global cereal stocks are expected to expand by 7.8 percent to a record high, with inventories of all major cereals, including rice, increasing. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected to reach 31.8 percent, its highest level since 2001.
Global cereal trade in the 2025/26 marketing year (July–June) is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent compared to the previous year.
Meanwhile, FAO-hosted Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) released its monthly Market Monitor, noting relative stability in international markets for major food crops. While the report highlights the resilience and flexibility shown in recent periods, it cautions that this stability largely reflects favourable conditions such as strong harvests, efficient supply chains and adequate fertilizer availability, warning against assuming that global food markets are now structurally less vulnerable to future shocks.
